ΙΟΒΕ
- 30 Apr 2023
- economy
IOBE sees growth of 2.4% and average annual inflation of 4.3% for this year in its report for the 4th quarter of 2022, at the same time noting a tendency for the economy to become more and more extroverted despite the uncertainty and international risks.
During the presentation of the report, in his remarks, the General Director of the Institute, Professor Nikos Vettas, emphasized, among other things, that the Greek economy shows a greater degree of development than the EU and tends year by year to become more outward-looking. With an index that adds up exports of goods and services and all imports, Greece after the lifting of the coronavirus restrictions achieves a score of 103 against the EU's 82.
As Mr. Vettas said, this indicator indicates the growing international "presence" of Greece in the international markets, which gives a signal for the consolidation - under conditions - of positive growth in the coming years as well.
As far as 2024 is concerned, the main scenario of the Institute of Economic and Industrial Research foresees a growth rate of 2.4% for this year. Growth is expected to come from the significant increase in investments by 7%, which can reach 10% if we do not have long delays in the implementation of the Recovery Fund due to elections, from the increase in private consumption by 1.3% but also the exports, which are expected to increase this year by 3.2%. Imports are expected to increase again this year by 2.6%, while unemployment will continue to decline, reaching 11.2% at the end of the year from 12.4% where it was in 2022.
A condition for the implementation of this scenario is that the geopolitical instability that has prevailed in our region in recent years recedes, and at an internal level we do not have a delay of more than two quarters in the implementation of the projects and reforms of the Recovery Fund due to elections.
Conditions are also that the Government that will emerge from the elections have a four-year horizon and that forecasts for inflation lower than the European average are confirmed, with strong private consumption and good performance in international and European Tourism.
The dangers
Among the risks that can overturn the basic scenario for the economy are the long delay in the formation of a new Government and a new rise in international energy prices, given that the energy crisis has not passed but is currently in recession.
Also, the high current account deficit, which last year reached 9.2% of GDP (about the same as in 2008), should be addressed in a more permanent way, even if the reasons for the increase are attributed mainly to the surge in energy prices which today are in retreat.
Mr. Vettas also pointed out the risk of a delay in the implementation of reforms that are being implemented today, both in the context of the TAA and with a national initiative, while stressing that the economic policy announced by the new Government will also play a role in the continuation, as and the speed with which it will apply it.
