ΙΟΒΕ
- 30 Apr 2023
- economy
The economic sentiment index continues its upward trend for the fourth month in a row, as it also strengthened in February and now stands at 107.5 points compared to 105.9 points in January.
The rise comes from improving expectations across all business sectors, although consumer confidence is slipping. The main parameters of the international environment appear to be consolidating and so far the effects of the war in Ukraine, the crisis in the energy markets and inflation have been largely incorporated into expectations, which is why the corresponding European indices remain unchanged this month. Domestically, the upward trend converges with historical data in most pre-election periods, when there is generally an improvement in expectations for the course of the economy and the future position of households and businesses.
At the same time, the initial fears of a generalized recession in Europe during the winter have not been verified, while there are also early signs for the coming tourist season that are more positive than expected. Although the basic conditions and constraints of the economy do not change in the short term, the post-election developments and the emergence of a new government in a reasonable time will clarify the characteristics of the next period.
In more detail:
in Manufacturing, the negative balance of orders and demand estimates strengthened slightly, inventory estimates fell, and positive forecasts for production in the coming months strengthened significantly.
in Construction, the negative forecasts for production declined significantly, while at the same time the positive forecasts for employment are improving strongly.
in Retail Trade, estimates for current sales have been significantly strengthened, with inventory levels remaining at the same levels, while forecasts for short-term sales development are noticeably improving.
in Services, the positive estimates for the current state of business declined, as did those for demand, while forecasts for the short-term evolution of demand strengthened significantly.
in Consumer Confidence, households' negative forecasts for the country's economic situation strengthened significantly, as did the corresponding ones for their own economic situation. At the same time, forecasts for major markets worsened marginally and the intention to save decreased slightly.
