ΙΟΒΕ
- 30 Apr 2023
- economy
One of the highest performances of the last nine months was recorded in December 2022 by the economic sentiment index, which rose to 104.3 points, compared to 101.4 points in November, according to the economic sentiment survey of the Institute for Economic & Industrial Research.
As can be seen from the IOBE data, this rise converges with the general European trend, despite the individual national differences and stems from the improvement of expectations mainly in Industry and less in Services, while consumer confidence also recovers to the levels of the beginning of the year .
On the contrary, despite the festive season, expectations in the retail trade are deteriorating, as well as in private construction. Good weather conditions have delayed the impact of energy costs in terms of heating, while a more general, albeit small, decline in the prices of energy goods has facilitated a number of sectors of the economy. Uncertainties regarding inflation and in the wider international environment remain strong, however, it seems that they have been integrated into expectations to a large extent and their weakening is expected gradually during the year.
Based on the IOBE survey, as the country enters a pre-election environment, an even greater improvement in the climate index can be expected. Such an improvement is systematically recorded in almost all election years, since 1981, as households and businesses discount a series of measures that will favor them, temporarily or post-election. Overall, it seems that the upcoming elections are activating positive estimates, at least for the short term.
Particularly:
in manufacturing, the negative balance of orders and demand estimates weakened significantly, inventory estimates were unchanged, and positive forecasts for production in the coming months strengthened slightly.
in construction, the negative forecasts for production fell sharply, while, on the contrary, the positive forecasts for employment weakened significantly.
in the retail trade, estimates for current sales fell significantly, with inventories remaining at the same levels, while forecasts for short-term sales developments are falling significantly.
in services, positive estimates of the current state of business changed slightly, as did those of demand, while forecasts of short-term demand developments improved markedly.
in consumer confidence, households' negative forecasts for the country's economic situation fell significantly, as did the corresponding ones for their own economic situation. At the same time, forecasts for major markets remained unchanged and the intention to save increased slightly.
