ΟΙ ΠΡΟΒΛΕΨΕΙΣ «ΜΙΛΟΥΝ» ΓΙΑ ΔΥΣΚΟΛΗ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΑ
- 30 Apr 2023
- economy
As much as the weather in Greece has helped in the fight against the energy crisis, from the new year the needs for heating oil will increase and consumers will be asked to reach deeper into their pockets, as from January 1 the state subsidy at the pump is cut by 10 minutes.
In fact, market players predict that in 2023 the prolonged decline in international oil prices will stop, which is already happening, with analysts estimating that prices will return to $100 a barrel. If the predictions are verified, then 2023, energy-wise, will be a much more difficult year.
At least 10 minutes higher in the price of heating oil from January 1st
The average nationwide selling price last Tuesday was €1.126/litre, including both the government subsidy of 25 cents/litre and the 7.5 cent discount given by refiners and trading companies, who have not yet announced whether they will continue the discount after December 31, 2022.
This means that the price of heating oil from 1 January will rise by at least 0.10 cents as the subsidy is reduced to 15 cents. However, concerns about a bigger "cap" are strong, as international prices are on the rise, reaching $83 a barrel after falling even below $75 in early December.
Oil at $100 in 2023
Eric Nuttall, portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners LP, recently told the Financial Post that oil prices will return to $100 a barrel in 2023.
According to analysts, many factors that have recently held back oil prices, such as China's zero-Covid policy, will not exist in 2023. Combined, in fact, with European sanctions on its oil and natural gas Russia, prices are expected to pull up.
Forecasts also state that the energy sector will continue to outperform other market sectors due to high demand for oil and gas reserves.
Nutall is not the only one predicting a difficult 2023.
Earlier in December, Bank of America predicted that Brent could quickly surpass $90 a barrel. The slowdown in interest rate hikes by the Fed and the possibility of a successful opening of China are the reasons that according to the US bank, the prolonged decline in oil prices will be stopped.
BofA has forecast Brent prices to average $100/bbl in 2023, driven by both increased Chinese oil demand after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions and a drop in Russian supplies of around 1 million barrels in day.
OPEC+ is likely to fully implement a 2 million barrel production cut in an effort to boost oil prices, according to BofA.
